Chelsea are predictable but Sam Kerr’s brilliance makes it work

At full-time, Chelsea's matchwinner was the last outfielder to join in the celebratory hugs.

It wasn't that Sam Kerr was less jubilant than her team-mates about Sunday's 1-0 home win over Manchester United, and it wasn't that her contribution was being overlooked. She was just so far away from everyone else on the pitch.

That was no coincidence. Emma Hayes' side had spent the final quarter of the match playing with a solid back five, a holding midfielder in front of them, and a regular full-back on the left of midfield. That's seven players charged with shutting down the game. Melanie Leupolz filled the central midfield zone, and substitute Johanna Rytting Kaneryd sprinted up and down the right.

Kerr was practically in a different postcode to her team-mates; a solo attacking threat hoping for long balls to be played in behind United. That had been Chelsea's plan all along.

Football has a funny relationship with the concept of attacking play being 'predictable'. If a side attack repeatedly in a similar way, and it proves successful, they are seen as having had a clear game plan. If they repeatedly attack similarly but get the final pass wrong, they're dismissed as too predictable. It's classic outcome bias.

At Kingsmeadow yesterday, Chelsea either had a clear game plan, or they were too predictable, depending on whether Kerr could take one of the chances that came her way.

A Chelsea squad with everyone fully fit and firing on all cylinders would be a very different proposition.

A peak Chelsea would have Fran Kirby sprinting into the channels, Pernille Harder finding space between the lines, Guro Reiten crossing from the left and Erin Cuthbert pushing forward from midfield. With those four all unavailable — two long-term casualties, two ruled out for this game — Chelsea simply looked to hit balls in behind for Kerr, again and again.

Jessie Fleming was fielded as the No 10 to try to provide the through balls. A subdued Lauren James rarely beat Hannah Blundell and instead reverted to the general game plan. On the left, Niamh Charles was probably used as a wide midfielder to guard against Ona Batlle's attacking runs.

That worked well, and on the stroke of half-time, when Millie Bright conceded possession with left-back Jess Carter up the pitch, Charles covered and made a crucial intervention to stop United getting in.

But Charles inevitably didn't offer the attacking threat Reiten would have. In last weekend's Continental Cup final loss to Arsenal, Emma Hayes' game plan concentrated on feeding Reiten on the run, and her sending in crosses intended to become Kerr headers. It worked, at least in an attacking sense in the opening stages.

Here, without Reiten, Kerr transformed from a target to a sprinter.

So, eight minutes into the game, right-back Eve Perisset dribbles towards the halfway line and launches a ball towards Kerr.

The chaos that simple pass causes was extraordinary.

United's left centre-back Millie Turner half-intercepts the ball, but it then runs loose.

Right centre-back Maya Le Tissier can't adjust and stumbles while trying to collect the ball, so it reaches Kerr. This forces United's full-backs inside to provide cover.

Kerr, under pressure from two opponents, rushes the shot and scuffs it at goalkeeper Mary Earps. United have done enough, but this was an entire back four desperately trying to stop a lone striker.

Fleming is dribbling forward through midfield here, in exactly the position she wants to be in. Checking over her shoulder — few players scan the pitch more diligently than her — Fleming realises she has enough time to wait and play a through ball.

Kerr knows what is coming, and takes off with a sudden sprint away from the ball, into the right channel, creating an angle for the pass, only looking behind at the last moment, like she's running the final leg in a 4x100m relay.

Turner, for a second time, ends up on the floor while unsuccessfully trying to intercept the ball.

Blundell, again on the cover from left-back, just about does enough to put Kerr off as she shoots straight at Earps for a second time.

Third time lucky.

James has dropped to right-back here and has possession in a similar position to Perisset earlier. She plays that same pass.

This time, the ball drops perfectly onto Kerr's chest, right on the edge of the United penalty area.

Kerr has tracked the path of the ball and checked the positioning of Earps. She controls the pass so well that she can afford to let it bounce not once but twice, making the finish easier.

It's still not easy, though.

It's a perfect lob that drops into the far corner. It's a goal that is simultaneously a consequence of a side's overall game plan, and an example of absolute individual brilliance. And when you have a brilliant individual, the game plan is easier to devise — even without several other attacking options.

Kerr had other attempts on the day — a curler wide just after half-time, a blocked shot midway through the second half — but when the free-running Fleming was replaced by club captain Magdalena Eriksson, introduced as a fifth defender, it was clear the Australian would be feeding off scraps. Chelsea created little else, but they also prevented United from generating anything.

Considering Kerr has won the WSL Golden Boot in each of her two full campaigns at Chelsea, it feels strange that this was just her seventh league goal of the season. She's scored less than half of Bunny Shaw's tally of 15 for Manchester City.

But not all goals are equal. Kerr's late equaliser at the Emirates in January prevented Arsenal from going joint-top, and the winner here meant Chelsea replaced United in first place.

Chelsea can't play like this in every game, particularly with two tests against European champions Lyon coming later this month in the Champions League quarter-finals. With Reiten back on the left, Cuthbert restored in midfield, and perhaps Harder — who has returned to training, and was watching from the stands here — available too, Chelsea will be a less predictable side.

But here, despite only having one method of attack, Chelsea were wily enough to grind out a crucial win.

Perhaps that was the most predictable thing of all.