Can the Cowboys still make the playoffs? The exact probability behind Dallas’ postseason chances ahead of Vikings test

The Dallas Cowboys woke up Tuesday morning with something unexpected: their playoff chances actually improved overnight, despite doing nothing at all. The Eagles’ Monday night loss to the Chargers slightly reshuffled the NFC race, nudging Dallas’ mathematical odds upward, but not by enough to call this anything more than a long shot.

At 6-6-1, the Cowboys sit 10th in the NFC and remain steadily outside the playoff picture. Most projections still paint a grim outlook:

That “if” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Dallas must run the table over the final four weeks, and even then, they’d need a helping hand from bitter rival Philadelphia.

How the Cowboys fell into this hole

The Cowboys’ freefall began long before kickoff against Detroit, but Week 14’s 44–30 loss felt like the moment hope was truly lost. Dallas has since unraveled in almost every key area: red-zone defense, explosive plays allowed, and late-game execution.

The most damaging variable for Dallas is their conference record. They sit at 3-5-1 in NFC play, a tiebreaker nightmare that leaves them behind nearly every contender they’re competing with.

The path: win out or it’s over

Here’s the Cowboys’ remaining schedule:

This is the definition of “winnable but treacherous”. The Chargers are the clear obstacle. Washington, meanwhile, becomes a different team if Jayden Daniels suits up. And the Giants, despite their record, have been spoilers in late-season divisional games before.

If Dallas wins all four, they finish 10-6-1, which gives them roughly a 46% chance to sneak into the postseason. Anything less than 4-0 ends the conversation immediately.

What the Cowboys need from the Eagles

To win the NFC East, Dallas needs the Eagles (currently 8-5) to collapse down the stretch. Specifically, Philadelphia must lose at least three of its final five.

Eagles’ remaining schedule:

Realistically, Dallas needs the Eagles to lose to Buffalo, and split their two matchups with Washington. It’s not impossible, but “not impossible” isn’t exactly reassuring.

As for the wild card, that’s even tougher. Dallas would need one of the following to fall apart completely:

All currently hold stronger records, stronger tiebreakers, or both. The math says the NFC’s playoff door is shutting fast… but it’s not locked.

So, can the Cowboys still make it?

Technically, yes. Realistically, only if everything goes their way.

Dallas needs:

This is the kind of scenario that keeps playoff simulators in business and Cowboys fans up at night. The hope isn’t gone, but it’s hanging by a thread, and the Cowboys have burned through any cushion they once had. From here on out, every possession is effectively a playoff snap.

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