Heat is ON for England Women at WWC but pressure of expectation will weigh heavy

It is easy to fall into the trap of thinking about the knockout phase of a World Cup before the group stage has started.

Even England’s players had one eye on a potential last-eight meeting with Germany. ‘We could meet them in the quarters if things go to plan,’ Georgia Stanway said on the eve of the tournament.

Two weeks in and Germany are heading home, leaving England with a smoother path to the semi-finals than they could ever have imagined.

Germany are one of three top-10 ranked teams who have been eliminated. Brazil and Canada are the others and both were on England’s side of the draw.

If England can get past Nigeria (40th) in this round, they face a quarter-final against Colombia (25th) or Jamaica (43rd). From there, a semi-final against France or Australia looks likely — but this World Cup has taught us to expect the unexpected.

That a team such as Morocco, who are ranked 72 in the world, can progress to the knockouts at the expense of a super power such as Germany is the greatest proof that expanding this tournament from 24 to 32 teams was justified.

England will not be thinking beyond their last-16 game and they will be wary of the threats Nigeria pose. There is nothing to lose for the African side. They have already shown they can compete with higher-ranked nations, having beaten Australia and drawn with Olympic champions Canada in their group.

The pressure is on the Lionesses and they cannot afford to be complacent. What is different about this tournament to previous ones is that the lower-ranked nations are tougher to break down.

They are better at defending, more tactically astute and can frustrate the bigger teams by utilising a mid-block. This means there is little space in the middle of the pitch, which makes it difficult to play through them.

This was a problem for England against Haiti and to a certain extent against Denmark. In both games they had more than 70 per cent possession but were forced to go out wide because the central areas were congested.

This in turn made it harder for England’s centre forward Alessia Russo to get on the ball.

Sarina Wiegman’s solution was to change formation for the final group game against China, deploying wing-backs and two strikers to force the opposition out of their narrow set-up.

Germany faced a similar problem against South Korea but were unable to combat it.

‘It’s a sign of the times that coaches more flexible in their tactical set-ups and making in-game adjustments will be more successful,’ explained former USA boss Jill Ellis, head of FIFA’s technical study group.

‘Gone are the days when you can just stick with what you’ve been doing. With Germany it didn’t seem like there was an adjustment early enough in the game. South Korea were very, very good in their organised block and tough to break down. So how do you combat that to take advantage?’

England must not underestimate their opponents, but equally they should see this as the best opportunity they have had to reach a World Cup final.

‘I don’t think we fear anyone,’ said England goalkeeper Mary Earps. ‘Our qualities have shown through in however many years we’ve been playing together, so I think we’re in a good spot.

‘The proof is what happens come game day, and the most important thing is that we’ve won three out of three. I know the results haven’t been as people would have wanted (two 1-0 wins before thrashing China), but we’re playing at a World Cup at the end of the day.

'This is the creme de la creme, this is the top. We know what we’re capable of, we’re just focused on one game at a time and getting the job done.’

England are yet to conceded from open play but Earps has still been called upon, making a crucial save to prevent a Haiti equaliser in the opening match.

‘The standard is so high, games can change at the drop of a dime,’ Earps said. ‘Anything can switch the moment so I’m just trying to stay focused and be ready when called upon.’

So, who’s heading for the last eight?

SWITZERLAND v SPAIN

Saturday, 6am, BBC1

Switzerland are the underdogs despite being undefeated here. Spain have by far the stronger squad and should do enough to progress, but Switzerland can take comfort from the fact Jorge Vilda’s side were beaten 4-0 by Japan in their last outing.

Prediction: Spain

JAPAN v NORWAY

Saturday, 9am, ITV1

Japan were the standout side of the group stage. They are yet to concede a goal and have been scoring plenty. Norway were underwhelming before thrashing the Philippines to qualify for the knockouts.

Ada Hegerberg faces a late fitness test and, even with the 2018 Ballon d’Or winner, this tie will be a struggle for them.

Prediction: Japan

NETHERLANDS v SOUTH AFRICA

Sunday, 3am, BBC1

Netherlands are perhaps the dark horses of this tournament. They beat the USA to top spot in Group E despite not having star player Vivianne Miedema.

South Africa progressed with a late victory over Italy. They are fun to watch but have a habit of gifting goals to the opposition.

Prediction: Netherlands

SWEDEN v UNITED STATES

Sunday, 10am, ITV1

Sweden topped their group comfortably and will fancy their chances against the holders, who are yet to find any rhythm at this tournament.

The Swedes have not been tested yet but the US have struggled against them in recent years. Potentially the tie of the round.

Prediction: Sweden

ENGLAND v NIGERIA

Monday, 8.30am, BBC1

England will hope to replicate their performance in the 6-1 thrashing of China but Nigeria pose a much tougher test. The African side progressed from a Group of Death by knocking out Olympic champions Canada.

The Lionesses should cause problems in attack but will have to be wary of Nigeria’s speed on the break.

Prediction: England

AUSTRALIA v DENMARK

Monday, 11.30am, BBC1

The hosts will be buoyed by their 4-0 thrashing of Canada but there are question marks over the fitness of Sam Kerr, who is yet to play a minute at this tournament.

Denmark have shown they are defensively strong but have struggled for goals. The Aussies will feel they will have the momentum to get over the line.

Prediction: Australia

COLOMBIA v JAMAICA

Tuesday, 9am, ITV1

This is probably the toughest tie to predict. Colombia have shown more attacking threat than their opponents but Jamaica have been solid defensively and are yet to concede a goal.

Linda Caicedo will be the key going forward for Colombia, while Jamaica will hope any chances they create fall to Manchester City striker Khadija Shaw.

Prediction: Colombia

FRANCE v MOROCCO

Tuesday, noon, BBC1

Herve Renard’s France look to have found their groove after a shaky start. Morocco beat the odds to progress from their group and will be hoping to cause another shock.

The north Africans have improved defensively since a 6-0 defeat in their opener against Germany (since eliminated) but beating Les Bleues will be a tough ask.

Prediction: France