EPL predictions: Jones Knows thinks Southampton can add to Everton's woes

It feels like a pivotal weekend at the top and bottom of the Premier League - how does our tipster Jones Knows see it all unfolding?

Brighton vs Liverpool, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Taking a pro-Brighton, shots and goals stance was my original plan for what should be a seriously-entertaining afternoon at the Amex but it seems others agree. All three angles of attack have been priced up much skinnier than anticipated by the markets, so we've got to be creative in order to hunt out the value.

Such is the way Brighton attack under Roberto De Zerbi, scoring 17 goals in their last six games, monitoring the prices around their forward line for shots and goals is always a savvy tactic. And look who we've stumbled upon here.

It's Solly March.

Liverpool remain a malfunctioning machine without the ball and are allowing teams a huge amount of high quality chances on their goal. Look at the last 12 games for example, and they are averaging 5.4 shots on target conceded per match.

I'd expect Brighton to hit that average in this one so it makes perfect sense to think that March, who remains playing in a very attack-minded role down the left and has scored twice in his last three games, will be a threat.

His shot on target price at Evens with Sky Bet is one to consider - as is his goalscorer price of 7/1. No player has played more minutes for Brighton under De Zerbi than March so the chances of him being substituted are low which is another positive when making the March argument.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Everton vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm

Southampton are due a win at Everton, who are unbeaten in the last 17 meetings between the teams at Goodison Park. And this looks a fantastic time to be heading there, especially on the back of two straight wins that have lifted the mood at St Mary's. Nathan Jones is an infectious character and his teams - when high on confidence to play aggressively - are usually quite hard to stop. Everton may find that here if the Saints arrive with the same approach as they did against Manchester City in midweek.

James Ward-Prowse played in a much-advanced role in that 2-0 win over the champions, almost as a second striker. He was excellent at dictating the press and popped up in some very promising positions in and around the box. It makes sense for a player with his finishing ability to be playing higher and Jones may have just found a savvy way to utilise his skillset. Such is Ward-Prowse's threat from attacking free-kicks and being the designated penalty taker too, his prices across his shot and goal output are well worth snapping up against an Everton defence that have shipped more shots than anyone this season.

Ward-Prowse has had three shots on target and two goals in his three appearances for Jones in the Premier League, so backing him to have a shot on target at Evens with Sky Bet and taking the 100/30 anytime goalscorer price are bets with serious potential.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Nottingham Forest vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Since Nottingham Forest were dismantled 4-0 by Leicester in October, Steve Cooper has showed just what a shrewd operator he is by completely revamping the style of football he so desperately wants to play to give Forest a chance of survival.

Cooper has made Forest tough to beat in a tight defensive unit that lends itself to low scoring games at the City Ground with six of their last seven home fixtures in all competitions falling under the 2.5 goals line.

This game looks set to go the same way with Leicester arriving without James Maddison and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall - both of whom played huge roles in the Foxes' resurgence before the World Cup break.

Since the restart, Leicester have scored just two goals in their five fixtures across all competitions as confidence and rhythm is lacking in forward areas. Backing the 11/10 with Sky Bet on the 'no' for both teams to score covers a lot of likely correct scores at an odds-against price.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Wolves vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Julen Lopetegui hasn't yet a statement victory as Wolves boss at Molineux but one is brewing judged on the performance levels his team have shown at various points of matches.

Aston Villa couldn't cope in the first half of their 1-1 draw with Lopetegui's side who are playing with greater attacking intent and freedom than under Bruno Lage. That was also the case against Liverpool in the FA Cup where they were unfortunate not to beat Jurgen Klopp's men.

This looks a fine opportunity for them to register maximum points. West Ham remain plodding along under David Moyes with no real signs that a significant change in their fortunes is going to surge them up the table. There is an exciting side in there somewhere. However, the Hammers have won just two of their last 17 Premier League away games (D3 L12) since January 2022 - at Aston Villa and Norwich. That alone makes the 17/10 with Sky Bet on an away look awfully short up against an opposition that are on the improve.

Wolves on the draw-no-bet market at 5/6 with Sky Bet is therefore the way in with the 100/30 on a Wolves win by one-goal also worth a second look - five of their last wins have been by that margin.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Brentford vs Bournemouth, Saturday 5.30, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Bournemouth somehow remain outside the Premier League relegation zone, despite losing seven of their last eight league games. Not for long.

Losing their goalkeeper Neto to injury has had a huge impact on their season. Previously high-quality chances were being offered up but stopped by the Spanish stopper, but since Mark Travers has stepped in, Bournemouth are shipping goals at an alarming rate. Travers has conceded 39 goals in 14 Premier League appearances (that includes previous seasons) - and only one Premier League goalkeeper has ever conceded 40+ goals in their first 15 appearances when David Watson did for Barnsley in 1997/98.

Brentford aren't the most reliable when tagged with favouritism in a game having won just two of their nine Premier League fixtures against bottom-half sides but their set-piece prowess will be a likely route to goal against this timid Bournemouth defence, who have shipped a league-high 13 goals from set pieces this season. Ben Mee to score first at 14/1 with Sky Bet is a runner.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Chelsea vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm

Graham Potter isn't doing himself any favours at Chelsea with his lack of adaptability. He simply has to make Chelsea tougher to score against and if that goes against his natural instincts then so be it. His defenders don't look prepared or anywhere near the level required to play Premier League football at the moment - Kalidou Koulibaly and Trevor Chalobah were so far away from the best against Fulham is was embarrassing and the team's continued inability to be organised defending set pieces is quite baffling. That's on the manager.

I'm not sure there will be many takers on the 4/6 with Sky Bet for a home win based on how soft Chelsea are in both boxes. Play the Palace double chance at 6/5 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Newcastle vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Newcastle have taken their time to put away teams of late so I'd expect their shots and shots on target count to be hitting the projected lines as Fulham make a game of it. Nothing much jumped out as serious value but I'd be surprised if Bruno Guimaraes isn't involved in keeping the shot count high in a game where Newcastle should get the job done. He and Sean Longstaff have a good understanding in the middle of the park of dovetailing when one sits and one attacks the box. It's leading to the Brazilian seeing plenty of attacking action.

And despite Fulham's magnificent set of results, I'm still not convinced they defend the heart of the pitch with much conviction so oppositions teams can take advantage there. Guimaraes had 12 shots in his last six games. The 11/10 with Sky Bet for him to have a shot on target stands out.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

If someone would have given me 12/5 with Sky Bet at the start of the season for Tottenham to beat Arsenal at home, I'd have snapped your hands off. However, my confidence behind Spurs having a title-challenging season was way off the mark and it's their north London rivals that have made giant strides. Arsenal are 23/20 with Sky Bet for maximum points - across all metrics and just using the naked eye to assess performances, it's hard to argue that they are the most likely winners.

But, like with previous north London derby fixtures, I am going hunting for a bet in the cards markets.

In the past four seasons, no fixture has produced more booking points than an Tottenham vs Arsenal encounter. We've seen 43 yellows and five reds in the last nine meetings, to be precise. I'd expect this to be fiercely contested in a red-hot atmosphere with both teams playing right on the edge.

With that in mind, I think we can chase a high booking line and the 2/1 on 70 or more booking points makes appeal. It's a bet would have landed in six of the last nine meetings between these two in the Premier League.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2